20040809

1000 hrs August 9th 2004

Just got back

from Shanghai.

First thing I noticed,

coming in from the airport,

are all the new condos

at Pudong.

Impressive,

but less than half sold.

The developers are racing

towards a property crisis.

When their bank loans

are not translating into

condo sales.

Soon, they will default.

And a banking crisis

will erupt,

exploding the economy.

When a country

pursues expensive self glorification projects,

ignoring economic realities,

it always gets ugly.

The Pearl TV Tower

is a case in point,

towering above

HuangPu River,

like a nightmarish appendage

from Terminator II

or Alien III.

Billions spent on

the high speed super bullet train,

airport to town,

in 8 minutes flat.

But ticket charge

is a mere RMB30.

Its gonna take them

about 500 years

to breakeven

running full capacity.

Average worker wage

about RMB2000 a month

in Shanghai,

and a beer costs

RMB45.

A social crisis

will flare.

I believe

China will collapse first

before it becomes

a world economic

powerhouse.

Just like

no commercial monopoly

ever becomes

efficient,

neither can

political monopolies.

On Singapore's 39th national day,

it's time we remember that,

as our political leaders

make one costly mistake

after another.

Nonetheless,

I stood

at the mouth

of YangTze River

pondering the waters

that gave rise

to the Chinese race.

In a city,

that once humiliated

its people.

No dogs and Chinese

allowed.

Shanghai,

China's prostitute.

Always been,

and always

will be.