20040915

1600 hrs September 15th, 2004

Saw Shawshank Redemption on VCD

with Ms X.

Had to prove to her,

that contrary to her beliefs,

I actually enjoy movies,

but only good movies.

Suddenly reminded me of

Anwar Ibrahim.

Released from prison,

a really sick man.

I like his pro-democracy leanings

but have to say,

he almost destroyed Malaysia.

Mahathir saved Malaysia

by declaring Anwar a homo

and put him in prison.

It should be an international law,

that any finance minister caught

suscribing to the International Monetary Fund,

should indeed be declared a homo,

and put in prison.

The Asian crisis

was a result of

disruptive capital outflow.

No economy,

especially emerging market economies,

should ever be reliant,

on speculative capital flows.

It is like,

pumping a person

with steriods,

and then a sudden

cold turkey.

I am a financial markets trader,

I know how money moves,

from asset to asset,

from market to market.

It moves as a herd,

as has the intelligence

of its lowest common denominator.

And IMF's austerity measures,

makes things worse.

Devaluing the currency,

jacking up interest rates,

removal of energy subsidies,

tightening credit,

standard IMF remedies.

Its like throwing a book

on learning to swim,

to a drowning man.

Results are usually ugly.

Recall of massive bank loans,

leads to loan defaults,

bank runs,

drying up of liquidity.

And the dominoes continue

to fall.

Stock market crashes,

currency collapses,

real estate plunges.

And in the case of Indonesia,

social revolt.

Now that Anwar has been released,

the hope is he has,

been successfully rehabilitated,

from IMF doctrines