1400 HRS MARCH 30TH 2007

I'm sick tired

of writing

love and anti love shit.

Its like comparing

hot shit

and cold shit.

Let's do numbers crunching

for a change.

There are about

1 million residential units

in Singapore.

About 20% of them

are private property.

Which means about 200,000

private houses.

75% of them

are condos,

so we have

about 150,000

condos

in Singapore.

They tell me,

that condo vancancy rate

is 6.6%.

So that means

9900 condos

are vacant.

The government projected

that 450,000 new jobs

will be created

in the next 5 years.

Which makes it

90,000 new jobs

a year.

And a 50% increase

in population

by 2015,

a population of

6.5 million.

There is no way

any country's population

can increase by 50%

in 8 years

by organic growth.

It will be

foreigners

moving in,

taking up the majority

of the new jobs created.

With condo vacancy

of 9900 units,

as opposed

to 90,000 new jobs

created,

I don't care how many

jobs go to

HDB dwellers,

you will have

a housing deficit

for foreigners.

It is already happening.

Rentals

are going to

go right through

the roof.

True new supply,

will quickly come in.

Judging by the number

of en bloc sales

recently.

But the true value

will be

in suburban areas

which is currently

going for $450-$600 psf

as opposed to

$3000 psf in Marina Bay

$4000 psf in Orchard Road.

Two weeks ago,

SMRT outlined

its new MRT grid

to be ready

by 2015.

This island

will be criss crossed

with subways.

Any condo project

that is accessible

to MRT

to the town area,

will have a huge

rental demand.

All this is of course,

taking the assumption,

that we don't piss off

our neighbours so much

that they'd nuke us

before the year

is over.